Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, North Texas. This is my favorite time of year — family, faith, gratitude, and a little bit of reflection. I am a family man through and through, and the Christmas season always reminds me why I do what I do. My wife Marilyn and I, our daughters Quinn and MJ — this is the time of year when all the noise quiets down and what actually matters comes into focus.
I am deeply grateful for every family in Frisco, McKinney, Plano, Allen, and across the DFW area that trusted me with one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives in 2025. This Christmas, I want to give you something useful: an honest look at what 2025 actually meant for the mortgage market in North Texas, and what it tells us about 2026.
The Rate Story for DFW Homebuyers in 2025
The year started with genuine optimism. After the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in late 2024, a broad consensus of economists predicted the 30-year fixed would settle into the 5% range by mid-2025. A lot of buyers in Frisco, McKinney, and across Collin County sat on the sidelines waiting for it. It never happened.
Mortgage rates in DFW spent most of 2025 in a stubborn 6.5%–7.5% range. The culprit was persistent services inflation that refused to cooperate with the Fed's timeline. Those rates you kept reading about in the news — the national average figures — reflect what the big banks and large retail lenders charge with all of their overhead built in. As an independent mortgage broker in Frisco TX, I was consistently delivering rates below those national averages to my clients throughout 2025 because my cost structure is fundamentally different. The buyers who worked with me were getting better pricing than the headlines suggested was available.
The buyers who waited for 5% rates in 2025 are still waiting. The ones who adjusted their strategy — buying at the available rates, knowing they could refinance later — are in their homes this Christmas. They are building equity. They are creating stability for their families.
Inventory in the DFW Market in 2025
Inventory improved meaningfully across DFW in 2025, particularly in the $350,000–$550,000 price range. New construction across Frisco, Prosper, Celina, McKinney, and northern Collin County provided significant supply relief. The lock-in effect — homeowners with 2.5%–3.5% rates refusing to sell — began slowly unwinding as life events forced moves regardless of rate. Multiple-offer bidding wars became less automatic. Buyers had more time to think and more room to negotiate than at any point in recent memory.
The Lessons of 2025
The clients who did best in 2025 were pre-approved before they started shopping, understood their real numbers, and had realistic expectations about rate timing. The clients who struggled either tried to time the market or stretched their budget beyond what made practical sense.
Looking Ahead to 2026
I am cautiously optimistic. Mortgage rates should drift modestly lower through 2026. DFW inventory should continue improving. And for Frisco and McKinney homeowners who bought at the 2023 rate peak, refinance opportunities are emerging right now — especially at the rates an independent mortgage broker in Frisco TX can deliver below the national average.
"Whatever 2026 brings — I will be here. Your trusted mortgage lender in Frisco TX. Wishing you and your family a blessed Christmas and a prosperous new year."
Call me anytime at (214) 336-5840.
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James Hoglen NMLS #211689 · Company NMLS #943733 · Licensed in Texas · Frisco TX 75034